Kodak and the Digital Camera
Kodak invented an early digital camera and later invested in digital products, but transition proved difficult.
Kodak engineer Steven Sasson built an early digital camera prototype in 1975. Kodak did not simply conceal the invention forever: the company later developed digital cameras and imaging services, while film remained an important business for many years.
Kodak's eventual bankruptcy reflected more than a single decision. Digital competition, the economics of film, organizational incentives, manufacturing, debt, and strategic timing all affected its ability to adapt.
A faster pivot might have improved Kodak's position, but it could also have reduced profitable film income before digital margins were established. No one choice guarantees that Kodak would have dominated digital photography or smartphone sensors.
The lesson is not that leaders should abandon a successful product at the first sign of change. It is that firms need ways to explore a future that may undermine today's revenue without assuming the future can be controlled.
It is that firms need ways to explore a future that may undermine today's revenue without assuming the future can be controlled.
What evidence of change am I discounting because acting on it would weaken something that works today?