The Shirky Principle
Institutions may have incentives to preserve the problems that justify their roles.
The Mechanism: The Shirky principle is commonly phrased as institutions trying to preserve the problem for which they are the solution. It is an aphorism about incentives rather than a universal empirical law.
The Philosophical Pivot: An organization may sincerely help while depending on a problem for its funding, authority, or identity. Good intentions do not automatically align with institutional survival.
The Horizon: Evaluation should ask whether an institution reduces the need for its own intervention or instead expands its mandate. Sunset clauses, independent audits, and user feedback can expose misaligned incentives.
Some problems are persistent, and continued work is not proof of failure or manipulation. Evidence about outcomes matters more than cynicism about motives.
The hardest institutions to reform may be those that define success as keeping themselves necessary.
An institution's success may conflict with the problem it claims to solve.
If the problem disappeared, would the organization I rely on celebrate the outcome or lose its reason to exist?